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Cotton fibre prices, production and consumption forecasts, April 2019
published in Issue 197, April 2019
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of cotton fibre prices, production and consumption forecasts, and equips strategic planners with information which enables them to predict the extent to which future changes in the cotton fibre price are likely to affect their businesses. In addition, it contains a detailed analysis of trends in cotton fibre prices and regional patterns of cotton supply and demand for the 2018/19 season and the 2019/20 season. Demand for cotton fibre is set to rise in the 2018/19 season (August 1, 2018-July 31, 2019), according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), but the rise will be only marginal and much weaker than the increase in the previous season as global economic growth slows and uncertainty regarding future trade relations between the USA and China persists. At the same time, however, production of cotton will fall and, as a result, demand will continue to exceed supply and stock levels will fall--although any downward pressure on prices will remain limited. In the 2019/20 season (August 1, 2019-July 31, 2020), global cotton consumption is expected to rise as Chinese demand recovers. This will coincide with a rise in the cotton crop--stemming largely from a rebound in yields in India, and improved plantings and a strong recovery of the crop in Pakistan. As a result, demand for cotton will be at a similar level to supply and the cotton price is expected to remain steady in the short term. However, some slight downward pressure on the cotton price is likely thereafter, resulting in an average for the 2019/20 season which is lower than the average for 2018/19.
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